Sim Fubara’s political future in Rivers State is uncertain, with his estranged godfather, Nyesom Wike, openly opposing his re-election bid. Fubara, who defected to the All Progressives Congress, APC, in December 2025, has already been endorsed by the party for a second term, but Wike’s influence in Rivers politics remains significant.
Wike, a former Rivers State governor and current FCT Minister, has dismissed Fubara’s chances, claiming his defection to the APC was “too late” and lacked a strong political structure. Wike’s supporters are believed to be seeking alternative candidates, and he has vowed not to support Fubara again, based on Wike’s body language and public utternaces. Despite this, the APC leadership appears to be backing Fubara, with National Secretary Ajibola Basiru calling for votes for both President Bola Tinubu and Fubara. This move may signal a shift in power dynamics, potentially relegating Wike’s influence.
Fubara is also believed to be enjoying the quiet support of other APC governors, who see his travail as a torment for all of them. The Imo State governor is believed to be leading the charge. But how the support from APC governors will translate to his re-election has remained a talking point.
Key Factors to Watch:
• Wike’s Next Move: Will he support an alternative candidate or attempt to sabotage Fubara’s chances?
• APC’s Commitment: Will the party continue to back Fubara, or will they yield to Wike’s pressure?
• Fubara’s Strategy: How will he navigate the complex web of alliances and rivalries in Rivers politics?
Possible Outcomes:
• Fubara Secures APC Ticket: Despite Wike’s opposition, Fubara might secure the APC governorship ticket, given the party’s endorsement and support from influential governors. This could lead to a bitter campaign against Wike-backed candidates.
• Wike-backed Candidate Emerges: Wike’s influence in Rivers politics is significant, and he might push for an alternative candidate. This could lead to a split in the APC and potentially weaken Fubara’s chances.
• Fubara Reconciles with Wike: A possible reconciliation between Fubara and Wike could change the dynamics. However, Wike’s public statements suggest he’s unlikely to forgive Fubara.
• APC Sacrifices Fubara: The APC might prioritize party unity and sacrifice Fubara to appease Wike. However, analysts argue this could alienate Fubara’s supporters and harm the party’s chances.
The outcome depends on various factors, including the APC’s stance, Wike’s influence, and Fubara’s ability to mobilize support.
• Solidify Support Base: Fubara should focus on consolidating his support among APC members and grassroots structures in Rivers State. Building a strong network of loyal supporters can help counter Wike’s influence.
• Leverage APC Leadership: He can utilize his relationship with APC leadership, particularly President Bola Tinubu, to secure support and protection against Wike’s machinations.
• Engage Other Stakeholders: The governor could reach out to other influential stakeholders, such as traditional leaders, business leaders, and community groups, to build alliances and reduce Wike’s impact.
• Negotiate with Wike: If possible, Fubara might attempt to negotiate with Wike, offering concessions or compromises to secure his support or neutrality.
• Prepare for a Tough Campaign: Fubara should be prepared for a bitter and potentially divisive campaign, focusing on mobilizing his supporters and countering Wike’s tactics.
Fubara’s ability to navigate these strategies will depend on his political skills, relationships, and the evolving dynamics in Rivers State politics.
