By JOHN ODHE
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), once touted as the viable “third force” capable of shaking Nigeria’s political landscape, is increasingly looking like a house divided against itself. As the countdown to the January 2027 presidential election accelerates, intense internal power struggles, ego battles, and strategic miscalculations threaten to turn what was meant to be a grand opposition coalition into a futile political endeavor.
While the party boasts of a strong legal team and claims to be the platform to beat, the reality within the ADC ahead of the May 2026 primary deadline is a deepening crisis of confidence. Who flies the the party’s presidential ticket is going to be their greatest undoing.
The Myth of a United Front
The ADC’s 2027 ambition is built on a coalition meant to challenge President Bola Tinubu. Yet, rather than consolidating, the party is battling “internal sabotage and poor coordination”. Key presidential contenders—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Labour Party candidate Peter Obi, and former Rivers Governor Rotimi Amaechi—are all vying for the party’s ticket.
This clash of titans has led to factions:
The Atiku Camp: Supporters of Atiku are accused of taking over most ADC state chapters, zonal organs, and national leadership positions. There are strong indications that Atiku is not ready to shift ground for anyone even if his ticket may not fly the coalition to its expected destination. An Atiku/Makinde ticket kite was flown on the social media shortly after the recent Oyo opposition meeting. This is even when some key northerners are sounding the implications of a northern presidential ticket in 2027 on the grounds of political equity and fairness.
The Obidient Movement:
Supporters of Peter Obi have raised concerns about “deliberate exclusion” of their loyalists from decision-making, fueling feelings of marginalization. There are also unconfirmed reports of Peter Obi looking for an alternative after reading the body language of Atiku that the former vice president is most likely to use money and influence to grab the ADC flag.
The Ambition Struggle: Rotimi Amaechi has declared he will not step down for anyone, demanding an open primary, setting the stage for a bitter contest. Ego, tribalism, and power struggles are cited as major drivers of this divide, rather than a cohesive strategy to win the election.
Legal Turbulence
A significant miscalculation has been the rapid, and often contentious, restructuring of the party. The former ADC presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, has vocally opposed the “hijacking” of the party by a “coalition of geriatrics” designed specifically to serve Atiku Abubakar’s 2027 agenda.
This “takeover” led to legal battles, with different factions claiming legitimacy.
Although the Supreme Court recently granted a lifeline to the David Mark-led faction, the party has been in a “tight spot,” battling litigation that could lead to disqualification. The Attorney General of the Federation has even supported a suit seeking the deregistration of the ADC for failing to meet electoral performance thresholds.
Misjudging The Incumbent
A common sentiment among some ADC leaders is that the party can defeat the incumbent, regardless of their internal divisions, with voices like Alhaji Buba Galadima claiming, “Even if we bring a corpse in a coffin…that corpse will win”.
However, this rhetoric is countered by realism from within the party.
Chieftain Leke Abejide publicly doubted the party’s chances, calling it “something that cannot work” and questioning the wisdom of fighting a “master of the game”.
This overconfidence—or perhaps diversionary rhetoric—masks the lack of a unified, actionable program to tackle Nigeria’s economic and security challenges.
2031 or 2027?
A fatal miscalculation may be the lack of a common goal. While some are fighting for 2027, others argue the party is actually preparing for 2031, with current moves being largely symbolic.
With some members of the Obidient Movement declaring that they will stay in the ADC “even if Atiku wins,” but other coalition members suggesting they might leave if their preferred candidate doesn’t emerge, the coalition appears brittle, a marriage of strange bedfellows.
The ADC is facing an existential test. If the party continues to let internal power struggles, regional tensions, and ego clashes dominate its agenda, the 2027 election will likely witness another divided opposition.
Without urgent consolidation, a clear and unified leadership, and a move away from personality-driven politics, the ADC’s 2027 presidential ambition is not unseating the incumbent, but winning the war against itself.
