BY JOHN ODHE
The Nigerian elite have continued to turn the nation’s electoral process to a big joke. An individual can boldly stand in front of international television cameras and predict how future elections will be won and lost. Brazenly enough, most times, such predictions come to pass accurately.
For instance, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and former governor of Rivers State, Mr. Nyesom Wike, has severally, publicly boasted how he influenced past elections results, and like his proverbial saying, “heaven will not fall.”
The early endorsement of Senate President Godswill Akpabio for a second term in the 11th National Assembly by members of the Senate, led by figures like Senate Chief Whip, Tahir Monguno declaring “no vacancy” before the 2027 general elections have even taken place, raises serious constitutional and democratic concerns regarding the supremacy of the ballot box and the independence of future lawmakers.
Preempting the Will of the Electorate
The Chronology Problem: The 2027 general elections have not been conducted, meaning the composition of the 11th Senate is entirely hypothetical.
Declaring leadership positions “not vacant” treats public office as an inherited or pre-allocated entitlement rather than a mandate granted by voters.
The “Returning” Assumption: Proponents like Senator Tahir Monguno argued that a majority of current senators would return.
However, Nigeria’s legislative turnover rate is historically high; voters routinely reject incumbent lawmakers.
Presuming that current members of the senate will retain their seats in the 2027 polls is a clear bypass of the uncertainty of competitive democratic elections.
Proclaiming the Senate presidency closed to future contestants discourages robust internal party and inter-party competition.
It is a red flag signal to the Nigerian electorate that the leadership question has already been settled by an elite consensus and not to be determined by their ballots anymore.
Such preemptive moves reinforce criticisms that the National Assembly operates as an appendage of the executive or a self-preserving cartel, prioritizing loyalty and pre-election alignment over independent oversight.
Public declarations that leadership is locked down well ahead of time feeds public cynicism.
Critics and civil society groups often interpret these moves as an advanced signal of coordinated political machinery or fears surrounding incumbent dominance rather than a genuine expression of democratic choice.
While senate leadership regularly calls on Nigerians to participate freely in the electoral process, pre-determining leadership outcomes before ballots suggests that the citizen’s vote for a senator is decoupled from the choice of who leads the upper chamber.
Pre-endorsing a senate president before the electorate decides who goes to the senate turns legislative democracy on its head.
Reacting to the worrisome development, the chairman of the Civil Liberties Organisation (CLO) in Bayelsa State, Comrade David West describes the situation as a mockery of the Nigerian nascent democracy.
He says: “”It shows how the mockery of our electoral system is.
“Otherwise, they have not even done the National Assembly election for the Senators to begin to know who is going to be the senate president and other principal leaders of the house.
“How many of them know whether they are even going to see the 2027? How many of them know whether they are even going to win the 2027 election, including himself, Akpabio?
“After all, the election that brought him (Akpabio) into power, the Professor who rigged the election for him is now in prison.
“They should allow the election to come and pass first before they begin to look for who becomes the senate president.
“Anyways, I think the 2027 election will determine who will become the next senate president. The likes of Senator Hope Uzodimma is also eyeing the senate presidency. Let’s wait and see.”
Rather than waiting for a mandate from the people and a free vote among newly elected representatives, the so-called pre-election endorsement tends to replace competitive parliamentary democracy with pre-scripted coronation politics.
